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Dec
27, 2010
1. JANUARY. As
many of you may recall, there are two seasonal indicators I
pay attention to in the stock mkt.
2. The
first is my own "Stock Market Hurricane Season". I
like to be out of the stock market (except for inner core
positions) in the aug-sep-oct period for
that entire time frame.
3. If
the market crashes within the aug-sep-oct period, I come
back in as it does.
4. If
not, I come back in at the end of Oct.
5. The
2nd time
frame I pay attention to is January. The first week in
January has about an 80% chance of predicting the direction
for the year. In this
case, I don't do anything but tweak my pgens. Mkt
crashes can happen in Jan-Feb-March, however, so you need to
be prepared at all times for the opposite of your predicted
scenarios... to be reality.
6. Mr.
Macro, who King Kong calls the best investor in New York,
has some concerns about the market's response to the coming
Jan payroll (the "Jobs Report") numbers to be
released around Jan 7. At this point, he sees a
possible spike up in all risk mkts going in to the report,
and then the possibility of some substantial stk mkt
weakness.
7. His
numbers fit with my pgen tweaking theme, rather than a "run
it's a hurricane" theme.
8. My
own prediction for 2011 remains: Volatility
increases, and therefore the difficulty in predicting market
action increases. Those who become overly
obsessed with trying pick the next move are the ones least
likely to benefit from it, and in fact the most likely to be
destroyed by it.
9. I
booked profit in corn trading positions this morning,
responding to price as opposed to predicting it. Corn
is rising steadily, and Morris
atwww.superforcesignals.com notes
that volume is confirming the rise in price in the
agriculturals, a very positive sign for my core positions,
and yours.
10. Gold
"feels" like it wants to surge several hundred
dollars higher, and the technicals are in an ideal position
to fuel such a surge. The banksters have put
Elmer Fudd Public Investor in a mental position to help fuel
such a surge, as it would be a "new year" and a
crazed price chase would be excused as a "placement of
investment money for the long term" in January.
11. The
mental state of the public is really a perfect fit with Mr.
Macro's Job Report Possible Intermediate/large minor Top For
Risk Markets.
12. The
actual January indicator is best used as "how
goes the first week or so of January, is how goes the rest
of the year, or likely how it goes".
13. Mr.
Macro is also looking for bonds to begin to rally from that
Jobs Report Pivot Zone, where he would then wait to reshort
them. If bonds were to rally and THEN fall and
take out the recent lows, it would probably cause a high
level of institutional concern.
14. I
scanned the various gold analysts this morning, and as you
know I like to get into people's minds, more than their
words. I'm a little concerned that there's almost
a "shriek" going on about the general media
supposedly bashing gold and calling it a bubble.
15. I
don't really see much gold bashing going on, but I'm getting
a sense that many gold community analysts and investors are
almost "demanding" that gold rise from here and
are starting to, somewhat wildly, attack anyone who is not
totally loaded up on gold. The bashing right now
is coming from the gold community, not the mainstream.
16. Gold
is a control mechanism. It is the ultimate
investment, the ultimate asset, and should form the
foundation of all investment portfolios. The
first investment bought in any portfolio must always be the
best investment, so gold must always be bought first, at
least some foundational amount.
17. Ironically,
the financial advisors who make "it's
time in the market, not timing"
their hallmark market mantra, are least likely to buy gold
at all for their clients. It's always the wrong
time to buy gold, except after it has soared and their
clients are asking if it is "here
to stay". Then,
timing does matter, and the price chase is initiated.
18. If
you understand what gold is, you want the price lower, not
higher, so you can buy
more. Focus on what
gold is first,
on where it is going against paper money, last. The
buying and selling you do all year long is
to get more gold, not more paper credits. He
with the most gold wins, not he with the gold valued the
highest in paper credits.
19. Despite
all the blab, gold could easily go to $1225 & lower, or
to $1700 and higher, within a month. If you can't
handle either scenario occurring, you need to immediately
adjust you pgen (and mindset) so you CAN.
20. Buying
gold because "paper money might fall to nothing"
is an irrational demand,
whereas buying gold because it is the ultimate asset, is the
ultimately rational course of action.
21. Boxed
in. It's very difficult to box in gold now. What
I mean is that it is very difficult to run a foundational
pgen to zero on gold, because it is simply "too far
mentally" above zero, for most investors to
grasp. Placing buy orders to zero is just too big
of a mental leap.
22. That
failed mental state is exactly what destroyed the public in
the stock market. The banksters were players at
every Dow point down into 6500, while the public stood
screaming at their golf ball advisors that they were
incompetent and costing them their "life savings".
23. I'm
personally starting to get the feelings in natgas and
uranium, that I got in gold bullion in 1999. They
are started to get "boxed in". I
picture a crowd of people invited to stand on a giant spring
because it is, supposedly, about to spring upwards.
24. More
and more people get on, and down goes the spring, instead of
up.
25. Soon,
more are jumping off than jumping on,yet
the net weight is still driving the spring down. You
need to stay on items like natgas, uranium, and gold
juniors as price declines, stay
on the spring, not jump off or set time limits for launch
date.
26. The
banksters don't really operate in time dimensions. They
operate in price dimensions, all price dimensions to zero,
because all is possible. The public focuses on
bragging about what can't go wrong with their investments,
while the banksters focus on what can go wrong. Follow
the banksters, not the wiener heads.
27. When
gold fell below $600 in 1980, did the banksters end up
holding "$600 gold deadwood"? Of
course they did.
28. Not
every bit of gold (or natgas) you buy into weakness goes
into the paper money black immediately. It can be
years or decades before it "all" does, and you
really shouldn't focus on it "all" anyways.
29. Sugar's
glut was supposed to last for eternity when sugar was 12
cents a pound. Now the natgas glut is supposed to
last for eternity at ng $4. I bot the oil
glut into $10 that was supposed to last for decades.
30. Gluts
end. Be positioned long before they do, not long
after they do, if you want to maximize the wealth you
build. Be a buyer
of gluts, not a predictor of the date they end.
31. At
gold $1387, it was "getting away". At
$1315 "the correction is on, and
we need to look lower while buying nothing now". Two
strikeouts.
32. Now
everyone knows gold is about to blast higher and anyone who
says otherwise is "the enemy". I'm a
little concerned that if we DO blast higher in early
January, the gold community is not going be booking profit
on trading positions but instead getting wildly
carried away on the buy,
alongside the public.
33. "Things
are happening with the dollar that could make it more
attractive. I mean they are talking about giving tax
incentives for people to bring their dollar holdings back
home that can make the
dollar go a lot higher for a while...."
-Jim Rogers, Dec 20, 2010.
34. You
own dollars. You own gold. If the
dollar becomes more "attractive" you sell it into
that price strength and buy gold and gold-related items on
price weakness. It's that simple.
35. Onto
the gridlines we go. Last week was pretty
successful, with a mountain of you reporting various amounts
of improvement and performance for the year.
36. Let's
finish the year without "losing it" out there and
just walk the last 5 days of the market plank totally
focused on the grids.
37. If
I had to trade only 2 markets, what would they be?
38. Bonds
and Gold. Bonds pay interest. Gold is
the ultimate investment. Moving back and forth
between bonds and gold as these mega-long timeframe markets
move from bull to bear, moving from one to the other in a
pgen, should be the main focus of all investors. Investors
should be mostly out of bonds. Yet, horrifically,
the public is all IN on bonds.
39. 2011
is going to be a year of tremendous pain for those all in on
bonds.
40. Tomorrow
is options expiry day for the metals...
Thanks!
Cheers,
st
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